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Garden Market Forecast:
Unseasonably Hot with Extended Sunny Skies and Rising Sales
by Pam Danziger
President, Unity Marketing

Cocooning is dead, as consumer emerge from their cocoons to reconnect with the outside world. You heard it here first! The trend that has dominated the consumer culture for the last twenty years, identified by Faith Popcorn as 'cocooning,' now is giving way to a new age of connecting. And this is TREMENDOUSLY positive news for businesses involved with the garden and the exterior parts of the home.

Today, consumers are emerging from their cocoons and turning away from the overt materialism that characterized the cocooning trend. With a "been there, done that" attitude consumers are turning their attention away from continued "feathering of the nest" toward reconnecting with the world. One of the key ways consumers reconnect is with new attention to their garden, their lawns, their porches and patios, their neighbors and their neighborhoods.

The key trend word today is "connecting" and consumers are turning their attention outside the home. As American baby boomer consumers emerge from their cocoons, their decorating passions are being expressed on the home's exterior and they are spending more money enhancing the outside living areas of their homes.

Garden expenditures totaled $37.7 billion in 2001, up 13% over previous year
With the average U.S. household spending $444 on lawn and garden goods in 2001, total retail sales of lawn and garden products - i.e. everything for the garden or used in the garden - reached $37.7 billion, up 13% over 2000 spending of $33.1 billion, according to statistics compiled by the National Gardening Association.

Within the recreational gardening market, the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the agency that compiles the GDP statistics used for establishing economic policy, reports that consumer expenditures on flowers, seeds and potted plants rose 5.7% in 2001 to $18.5 billion, up from $17.5 billion in 2000.

Bringing the industry's statistics even more up to date is the retail census compiled by the Census Department. Through July 2003, retail sales in garden centers, the primary channel of distribution of garden-related products, reach $27.1 billion, up a stunning 11.6% over retailer sales through the same period last year.

Consumers today have an unquenchable appetite to buy things that will enhance their enjoyment of the garden.

Second most popular luxury purchase is luxury garden
The garden is a particular passion for the affluent household, especially those with incomes over $75k. In Unity Marketing's latest luxury market survey, luxury garden purchases for high-end barbecues, luxury patio and pool furniture and decorative garden enhancements, i.e. pools, fountains, and sculptures, was the most widely purchased luxury product category, second only to luxury electronics. Forty-five percent of the affluent consumers surveyed purchased luxury garden products, with the average household spending $1,000 on luxury enhancements for their yard.

Increased spending driven by consumers' desire to reconnect with nature
Demographic shifts, notably an aging population with rising income and increased home ownership, is partly behind the increase in garden-related spending, but the real driver for growth is the consumers' passion to reconnect with the natural world.

As contemporary American culture becomes more "virtual" computerized and electronic, consumers feel a need to ground themselves in the real world, a trend which is finding expression in the garden as consumers divide their yards into different "outdoor rooms." They are building elaborate garden getaways to shut out the techno-centric culture and connect with the sounds, smells and sights of nature. They are inviting wildlife into their yards, and not just birds. More adventurous nature lovers are building bat houses and adding turtles, frogs and exotic fish to garden pools.

Ultimately all luxury products are translated and reinterpreted for the mass market. So too the trend in luxury garden will be expressed for the masses. Business prospects are bright for garden marketers who target both ends of the economic spectrum. For the classes, demand will grow for custom garden services, landscaping, building pools, fountains, patios, and wall and boundaries. For the masses, more affordable decorative accents, including patio furniture, garden statues, bird baths and houses, and do-it-yourself projects to build walkways, walls, arbors, fences and gates, will be in demand.

More and more consumer spending will be directed toward enhancing the garden experience
The connecting trend is all about consumers turning their attention from the thing (i.e. the noun) to enhancing an experience (i.e. the verb). The things they buy simply are a means to an end, and that end is an enhanced experience, a special feeling, or deep emotion. So garden businesses needs to align themselves with the priorities and passions of the consumer.

Seeds, plants, shrubs and trees make your garden green, but to transform your garden and enhance your experience of the outdoors, you need a whole host of other things, including furniture, decorative accents, tools and accessories. While all you really need to plant a flower bed is a shovel, a packet of seeds and a strong back. But to really experience "gardening" in its full scope and breadth, you need a garage or garden shed full of power-driven and garden hand tools, each one specially designed for its particular application, as well as fertilizers, soil amendments, and insect control sprays.

American consumers with a passion for outdoor living don't stint on spending big money on the latest and greatest tools, accessories and equipment that will enhance their enjoyment and experience of the garden. It is in the garden accessories area that garden marketers and retailers will find the greatest opportunity in the coming years. Clearly, consumers will return year after year to their favorite garden center or mail-order service for plant material, but each new garden season offers opportunities to expand upon the previous year's investment in garden tools and decorative accents.

Landscaping and garden services are in growing demand
Another way consumers manifest the desire to enhance their gardening experiences is to hire people in to do their landscaping and lawn and garden maintenance. In 2001 U.S. households paid $10.7 billion for gardening and lawn care services, nearly 25% more than the $8.6 billion they spent in 2000. The aging of the population accounts for some of the increased expenditure on lawn and garden care as do-it-yourself gardening can be strenuous. But increased spending on services is in keeping with macro trends in the U.S. economy which continues to shift more and more toward services.

In conclusion, the next decade will be one of solid growth in the garden market
"Demographics is destiny" when it comes to consumer marketing and the garden market is sure to enjoy a decade of solid growth due to the baby boomers. Two factors will be at play sending the boomers out into the garden with new vigor. Today and through the next decade the boomer population fits perfectly into the key gardening demographic profile, i.e. aged 38 to 57 years old; more than 75% of households in this age range own their own home; and these are peak household income years with median incomes of $50,000 and above.

But growth won't solely be driven by demographics, but by psychographics as well. Today's connecting baby boomer consumers brings totally new perspectives and approaches and desires for their garden. Notably, boomers are driving the demand for organic gardening solutions, as they are not willing to spread unknown chemicals all over their lawns. They also are exploring natural alternatives to the traditional lawn, which isn't natural at all. They are planting wildflower meadows, natural grasses and reviving lost prairie grasses in their lawns. Today, garden marketers need to focus on the needs, desires and passions of the emerging generation of gardening consumers. They will make a critical mistake if they assume that the boomer generation of 45-to-54 year olds is the same as the swing generation 45-to-54 year olds who just passed through this age group.

For marketers that get in tune with the new sensibilities and gardening desires of boomers, they will be rewarded with growing sales and market share. Boomer consumers will demand more stylish and decorative outdoor furniture and decorations. We also predict that boomers will renew a passion for vegetable and herb growing. This links right up to boomers' interest in gourmet cooking and the dining experience. They will start experimentally growing their own veggies and herbs first in pots, then they will move the kitchen garden out into the yard to expand their growing options.

Along with the boomers emphasis on food and dining, more boomers will be building outdoor kitchens so that they can maximize the experience of preparing gourmet meals on the patio. They will look for a more rugged style of dinnerware and tableware to serve from their outside kitchens. And they will need all kinds of new cooking tools and equipment as they expand their barbecuing and open-fire cooking options.

In conclusion, each garden marketer and retailer holds the keys to success in their hands. They need planing, strategy, forethought and understanding to realize future success. But most of all, they need to understand the consumer, their drives and desires that make they buy.

About Unity Marketing
Founded in 1992, Unity Marketing is a marketing research and consulting firm that specializes in luxury and discretionary markets. Using its "why people buy" strategy, Pam Danziger, company founder and author of Why People Buy Things They Don't Need, uncovers the motivations, desires and emotional needs that drive consumers to buy. This approach turns consumer insights into actionable marketing and brand strategies and gives executives "future vision" to plan the direction of their businesses. Unity publishes market research studies on the luxury market, art, jewelry, gifts and collectibles, personal care markets, as well as the Luxury Business newsletter. Pam is currently working on her next book, Let Them Eat Cake: Marketing Luxury to the Masses (as well as the Classes), to be published early in 2004.

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